Just like a disheveled bear taking her first steps after hibernation (you’re welcome), or that feeling you have on the first morning of daylight savings, rental markets across the country are “currently transitioning between slow and busy seasons,” according to the latest national Apartment List report.

Seattle’s rent should continue slowly plodding up as the busy season begins in full. However, some seeds that were planted back in 2021—when the rental market was white hot and rents were scorchingly high—are almost ready to bear fruit.

For our rental market, “turning the corner” in early spring looks a lot like the last couple of months: nearly flat rent that’s in line with tempered but typical seasonal price patterns. But big changes are almost here.

After a tiny uptick (0.8 percent) last month, median rent in the city sits at $1,988, Apartment List data shows. Year-over-year was about the same. Even so, that bump was enough to put Seattle’s rent growth at no. 14 among the nation’s 100 largest cities. It also keeps Seattle one of the most expensive places to rent in the country (no. 17).

Taken as a whole, the Seattle-metro experienced a similar smidgen of growth in median rent. Prices in Bellevue, Redmond, and Issaquah climbed the most over the last 12 months (4.6 percent, 3.2 percent, and 2.5 percent respectively), while value hunters might look toward Shoreline, Federal Way, or Kent, where rents took the biggest hits (-5.1 percent, -4.4 percent, and -3.9 percent).

However, Seattle’s apartment supply is poised to “skyrocket,” RealPage reports. There are more than 18,800 new units set to deliver this year, tripling the number delivered in 2023 and a new record high. Historically, it’s averaged around 5,500 new apartments per year.

The largest number of new units will be concentrated downtown and in Capitol Hill and the Central District, followed by north Seattle/Shoreline, the U District, and Ballard. And nearly every part of the Seattle-metro area will see some of the new supply.

Apartment inventory growth and rent growth have an inverse relationship. The new apartments represent a 5 percent inventory growth rate. Any time a lot of new units hit the market around the same time, it can be a boon for folks who want to lower their rent, move to a new neighborhood, or even enter the market for the first time.

The takeaway: All this new supply has the potential to put downward pressure on rents and transition Seattle into a “renter’s market.”