I’ve got big news to share, SeattLE—but before I get started, best make sure you’re sitting down.

Ready? OK, here goes: spring could actually start on time this year.

Yes, you read that correctly. In a significant departure from the past two years, the back half of March and much of April and May stand a good chance of running warmer than normal—thanks in large part to El Niño. The global climate phenomenon tends to have the opposite effect of its La Niña counterpart during Seattle springs, historically loading the dice toward warmer temperatures during late March, April, and May.

Need a reminder of just how un-springlike spring can be in these parts? Look back no further than the past two years in Seattle, when the beginning of spring felt more like the middle of winter.

Unpacking the start to “spring” in 2022 and 2023

Fellow Seattleites can be forgiven for not actually wanting to look back on the past two Aprils, as the weather was simply soul-crushing. Coming on the heels of the cold, gray winter months, April is usually the time of year when warmer weather takes root across Puget Sound, with afternoon temperatures bounding into the 60s and overnight lows staying mercifully above 40 degrees.

That was hardly the case in April 2022 and April 2023, however, with both months running significantly chillier than normal. April 2022, for instance, finished over four degrees colder than usual, punctuated by 16 straight below-average days in the middle of the month and the city’s latest freeze since 1985. Until the switch flipped to warmer weather in the home stretch, April 2023 was hardly any better, with 23 of the first 25 days of the month coming in on the chilly side. Despite its mild finish, the month still wrapped up almost three degrees cooler than normal.

In both cases, the chilly start to spring in the city was probably no accident, as La Niña weather conditions were still at play. Historically speaking, some of Seattle’s coldest starts to spring have come in La Niña years—including April 2011, which was Seattle’s coldest April in over half a century. Perhaps the famed poet T.S. Eliot had Seattle La Niña springs in mind when he wrote that April is the cruelest month?

El Niño springs actually feel like spring

Fortunately, for spring-deprived Seattleites, El Niños typically have the opposite effect during late March and April, bringing about warmer—dare I say seasonable—conditions. In fact, if history is any guide, this coming April stands a decent chance of finishing on the warm side of the spectrum—possibly entering the record books as one of the city’s warmest.   

A quick look at some of our recent El Niño springs demonstrates why this could be the case, with April 2016 perhaps the most dramatic—but also the most relevant—example. That April was more of a summer than a spring month in Seattle, with temperatures rising into the 80s on four straight days—including a stunning 89-degree reading on April 18, 2016. With an average temperature of 56.7 degrees, the month finished as Seattle’s warmest April ever, dethroning the previous record-holder—April 1977—by a full three degrees.

Interestingly enough, the preceding winter (2015–16) was marked by a strong El Niño in Seattle—not too different from the strong El Niño that caused our recent warmer-than-normal winter. To be fair, the 2015–16 El Niño was even stronger than the 2023–24 version that still has Seattle in its crosshairs. It’s also worth mentioning that April 1977 too was an El Niño spring.

Crucially, most of Seattle’s other recent warm Aprils have also been marked by El Niño conditions, including 1992 (fifth-warmest April) and 2019 (seventh-warmest April). With a further boost from our rapidly warming planet, I find it hard to envision this April—and the entire spring of 2024, for that matter—charting a cooler course.

The bottom line? It’s time for Seattleites to brace for a spring that actually feels like spring. Get your sunscreen ready. 😊

 Justin Shaw is the author of Seattle Weather Blog.